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A list of all the posts and pages found on the site. For you robots out there, there is an XML version available for digesting as well.
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Posts
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portfolio
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publications
International Financial Institutions and Economic Policy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa
Published in Journal of Modern African Studies, 1988
Recommended citation: [International Financial Institutions and Economic Policy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa](https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00010351). Journal of Modern African Studies 26 (March 1988), 113-137.
Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science
Published in World Politics, 1991
Recommended citation: [Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science](https://doi.org/10.2307/2010470). World Politics 43 (January 1991), 169-195.
Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model
Published in Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1994
Recommended citation: [Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model](https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002794038002004). Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (June 1994, Special Issue), 236-269.
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
Published in American Political Science Review, 1994
Recommended citation: [Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes](https://doi.org/10.2307/2944796). American Political Science Review 88 (September 1994), 577-592.
Rationalist Explanations for War
Published in International Organization, 1995
Recommended citation: [Rationalist Explanations for War](https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818300033324). International Organization 49 (Summer 1995), 379-414.
Counterfactuals and Causation in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes
Published in Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, 1996
Recommended citation: Counterfactuals and Causation in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes. In Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.
Explaining Interethnic Cooperation
Published in American Political Science Review, 1996
Recommended citation: [Explaining Interethnic Cooperation](https://doi.org/10.2307/2945838) (co-authored with David Laitin). American Political Science Review 90, 4 (December 1996), 715-735.
Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs
Published in Journal of Conflict Resolution, 1997
Recommended citation: [Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs](https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041001004). Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, 1 (February 1997), 68-90.
Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict
Published in The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation, 1998
Recommended citation: Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict. In David Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds., The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.
Deliberation as Discussion
Published in Deliberative Democracy, 1998
Recommended citation: Deliberation as Discussion. In Jon Elster, ed., Deliberative Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Reprinted in Jostein Gripsrud, Hallvard Moe, Anders Molander, and Graham Murdock, eds., The Public Sphere. Sage Publications, 2010.
Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation
Published in International Organization, 1998
Recommended citation: [Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation](https://doi.org/10.1162/002081898753162820). International Organization 52, 2 (Spring 1998), 269-306.
Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance
Published in Democracy, Accountability, and Representation, 1999
Recommended citation: Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance. In Bernard Manin, Adam Przeworski, and Susan Stokes, eds., Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic Identity
Published in International Organization, 2000
Recommended citation: [Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic Identity](https://doi.org/10.1162/002081800551398) (co-authored with David Laitin). International Organization 54, 4 (Autumn 2000), 845-877.
Rationalism and Constructivism in International Relations Theory
Published in Handbook of International Relations Theory, 2002
Recommended citation: Rationalism and Constructivism in International Relations Theory (co-authored with Alex Wendt). In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations Theory. London: Sage Publications, 2002.
Selection Effects and Deterrence
Published in International Interactions, 2002
Recommended citation: [Selection Effects and Deterrence](https://doi.org/10.1080/03050620210390). International Interactions 28, 1 (January-March 2002), 5-29.
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
Published in American Political Science Review, 2003
Recommended citation: [Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War](https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055403000534) (co-authored with David Laitin). American Political Science Review 97, 1 (February 2003), 75-90.
Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country
Published in Journal of Economic Growth, 2003
Recommended citation: [Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1024419522867). Journal of Economic Growth 8, 2 (June 2003), 195-222.
Two Questions about Ethnicity and Nationalism: Explaining Motivations versus Explaining Variation
Published in The Evolution of Political Knowledge, 2004
Recommended citation: Two Questions about Ethnicity and Nationalism: Explaining Motivations versus Explaining Variation. A comment on Leonard Binder's essay, in Edward Mansfield and Richard Sisson, eds., The Evolution of Political Knowledge: Democracy, Autonomy, and Conflict in Comparative and International Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2004.
Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States
Published in International Security, 2004
Recommended citation: [Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States](https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article/28/4/5/11795/Neotrusteeship-and-the-Problem-of-Weak-States) (co-authored with David Laitin). International Security 28, 4 (Spring 2004), 5-43.
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?
Published in Journal of Peace Research, 2004
Recommended citation: [Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343304043770). Journal of Peace Research 41, 3 (May 2004), 275-302.
Separatist Wars, Partition, and World Order
Published in Security Studies, 2004
Recommended citation: [Separatist Wars, Partition, and World Order](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09636410490945965). Security Studies 13, 4 (Summer 2004), 394-415.
Comments of the Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change
Published in Reforming the United Nations for Peace and Security, 2005
Recommended citation: Comments of the Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change. In Ernesto Zedillo, ed., Reforming the United Nations for Peace and Security: Proceedings of a Workshop to Analyze the Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change. New Haven, CT: Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, 2005.
Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War
Published in Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2005
Recommended citation: [Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002705277544). Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, 4 (August 2005), 483-507.
Ethnic Mobilization and Ethnic Violence
Published in Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, 2006
Recommended citation: Ethnic Mobilization and Ethnic Violence. In Barry R. Weingast and Donald Wittman, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
Reforming International Institutions to Promote International Peace and Security
Published in Peace and Security, Expert Paper Series No. 5, 2006
Recommended citation: Reforming International Institutions to Promote International Peace and Security. In Peace and Security, Expert Paper Series #5 (Secretariat of the International Task Force on Global Public Goods, 2006).
Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset
Published in American Political Science Review, 2007
Recommended citation: [Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/ethnic-minority-rule-and-civil-war-onset/52AB034B2B9903C3D3280D0695FFAD23) (co-authored with Kimuli Kasara and David Laitin). American Political Science Review 101, 1 (February 2007), 187-193.
Iraq’s Civil War
Published in Foreign Affairs, 2007
Recommended citation: [Iraq's Civil War](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iraq/2007-03-01/iraqs-civil-war). Foreign Affairs 86, 2 (March/April 2007), 2-16.
Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War
Published in Institutions and Economic Performance, 2008
Recommended citation: Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War. In Elhanan Helpman, ed., Institutions and Economic Performance. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008.
Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Methods
Published in Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, 2008
Recommended citation: Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Methods (co-authored with David D. Laitin). In Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. Reprinted in Robert E. Goodin, ed., Oxford Handbook of Political Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009.
International Institutions and Collective Authorization of the Use of Force
Published in Can the World Be Governed? Possibilities for Effective Multilateralism, 2008
Recommended citation: International Institutions and Collective Authorization of the Use of Force. In Alan Alexandroff, ed., Can the World Be Governed? Possibilities for Effective Multilateralism. Waterloo, Ontario: Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 2008.
The Rise of Emergency Relief Aid
Published in Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power, Ethics, 2008
Recommended citation: The Rise of Emergency Relief Aid. In Michael Barnett and Thomas G. Weiss, eds., Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power, Ethics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008.
Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War?
Published in American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2009
Recommended citation: [Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War?](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.99.2.287) (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein). American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 99, 2 (2009), 287-291.
Review Symposium on “State Failure and Challenges to Democratization in Africa”
Published in Perspectives on Politics, 2009
Recommended citation: Review Symposium on "State Failure and Challenges to Democratization in Africa," comments on Robert Bates' When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa. Perspectives on Politics 7, 2 (June 2009), 361-363.
Evaluating Community-Driven Reconstruction: Lessons from post-conflict Liberia
Published in Development Outreach, 2009
Recommended citation: Evaluating Community-Driven Reconstruction: Lessons from post-conflict Liberia. Development Outreach 11, 2 (October 2009), 50-52.
Comments on R. Harrison Wagner’s War and the State: The Theory of International Politics
Published in International Theory, 2010
Recommended citation: Comments on R. Harrison Wagner's War and the State: The Theory of International Politics. International Theory 2, 2 (July 2010), 333-342.
Governance and Civil War Onset
Published in World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development, 2011
Recommended citation: [Governance and Civil War Onset](https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/119531468181479612). Prepared for the World Bank's 2011 World Development Report on "[Conflict, Security, and Development](https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/966731468161352341)."
Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War
Published in World Development, 2011
Recommended citation: [Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X10002032) (co-authored with David Laitin). World Development 39, 2 (2011), 199-211.
Two States, Two Types, Two Actions: Comments on Charles Glaser’s Rational Theory of International Politics
Published in Security Studies, 2011
Recommended citation: Two States, Two Types, Two Actions: Comments on Charles Glaser's Rational Theory of International Politics. Security Studies 20, 3 (August 2011), 431-440.
Taking the Gamble
Published in Boston Review, 2011
Recommended citation: Taking the Gamble (reply to Alex Downes, "Regime Change Doesn't Work"). Boston Review, September/October 2011.
Self-Enforcing Democracy
Published in Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011
Recommended citation: [Self-Enforcing Democracy](https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/126/4/1661/1923169?login=true). Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (November 2011), 1661-1708.
State Fragility, Governance Indicators, and the Risk of Civil Conflict
Published in Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World, 2013
Recommended citation: State Fragility, Governance Indicators, and the Risk of Civil Conflict. In Claudia Sepúlveda, Ann Harrison, and Justin Yifu Lin, eds., Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World. Annual World Bank Conference on Economic Development, 2011. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2013. Also published as "Fragilité des États, indicateurs de gouvernance et risque de guerre civile," Revue d'économie du développement 4 (Décembre 2011), 153-186.
Civil War Non-Onsets: The Case of Japan
Published in Journal of Civilization Studies, 2014
Recommended citation: Civil War Non-Onsets: The Case of Japan (co-authored with David Laitin). Journal of Civilization Studies 1, 1 (January 2014), 67-90.
Socially Relevant Ethnic Groups, Ethnic Structure, and AMAR
Published in Journal of Peace Research, 2015
Recommended citation: [Socially Relevant Ethnic Groups, Ethnic Structure, and AMAR](https://academic.oup.com/jpr/article-abstract/52/1/110/8365603) (co-authored with Jóhanna Birnir et al.). Journal of Peace Research 52, 1 (January 2015), 110-115.
How Does Development Affect Collective Action Capacity? Results from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia
Published in American Political Science Review, 2015
Recommended citation: [How Does Development Affect Collective Action Capacity? Results from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/how-does-development-assistance-affect-collective-action-capacity-results-from-a-field-experiment-in-postconflict-liberia/142B17BE6422DA333113391802435F81) (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein). American Political Science Review 109, 3 (August 2015), 450-469.
Civil War and the Current International System
Published in Daedalus, 2017
Recommended citation: [Civil War and the Current International System](https://direct.mit.edu/daed/article/146/4/18/27171/Civil-War-amp-the-Current-International-System). Daedalus 146 (Fall 2017), 18-32.
Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy
Published in International Organization, 2018
Recommended citation: [Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/cooperation-conflict-and-the-costs-of-anarchy/16C12FE9472696478E241E19106E6743). International Organization 72, 3 (Summer 2018), 524-560.
Why are Women More Effective at Fostering Public Goods Provision When They Work in Women’s Groups?
Published in Towards Gender Equity in Development, 2018
Recommended citation: Why are Women More Effective at Fostering Public Goods Provision When They Work in Women's Groups? (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys). In Siwan Anderson, Lori Beaman, and Jean-Philippe Platteau, eds., [Towards Gender Equity in Development](https://academic.oup.com/book/26611?login=true). Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018.
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risk on the Korean Peninsula
Published in Game Theory and Nuclear Stability in Northeast Asia, 2019
Recommended citation: Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risk on the Korean Peninsula. In Lauren Ice, James Scouras, Kelly Rooker, Robert Leonhard, and David McGarvey, eds., Game Theory and Nuclear Stability in Northeast Asia. Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2019.
Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict
Published in Nature, 2019
Recommended citation: [Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1300-6) (co-authored with principal authors Katharine J. Mach and Caroline M. Kraan, and 11 others). Nature 571 (11 July 2019), 193-197.
Review of Oriana Mastro, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime
Published in H-Diplo/ISSF Roundtable 12-6, 2021
Recommended citation: Review of Oriana Mastro, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, [Roundtable 12-6](https://issforum.org/roundtables/12-6) in H-Diplo, January 21, 2021.
Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma
Published in H-Diplo, 2022
Recommended citation: Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma. H-Diplo, February 4, 2022.
Strategic Dynamics of Social Mimicry
Published in Fight, Flight, Mimic, 2024
Recommended citation: Strategic Dynamics of Social Mimicry. In Diego Gambetta, ed., [Fight, Flight, Mimic](https://doi.org/10.1093/9780191802454.001.0001). Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024.
One Does Not Simply Dismiss the Nuclear Revolution
Published in The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security, 2025
Recommended citation: One Does Not Simply Dismiss the Nuclear Revolution. In Jim Mitre, Michael C. Horowitz, Natalia Henry, Emma Borden, and Joel B. Predd, eds., The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security. [RAND Report PE-A4155-1](https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA4155-1.html), 2025.
Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma
Published in The Jervis Effect: The Scholarship and Legacy of Robert Jervis, 2025
Recommended citation: Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma. In Richard H. Immerman, Stacie E. Goddard, and Diane N. Labrosse, eds., The Jervis Effect: The Scholarship and Legacy of Robert Jervis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025.
Understanding Intimate Partner Violence
Published in Annual Review of Political Science, 2025
Recommended citation: [Understanding Intimate Partner Violence](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041322-044022) (co-authored with Lisa Blaydes and Mae MacDonald). Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 28. Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, 2025.
The Conventional Balance of Terror: America Needs a New Triad to Restore Its Eroding Deterrence
Published in Foreign Affairs, 2025
Recommended citation: [The Conventional Balance of Terror: America Needs a New Triad to Restore Its Eroding Deterrence](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/conventional-balance-terror-lim-fearon) (co-authored with Andrew S. Lim). Foreign Affairs 104, 3 (May/June 2025), 122-135.
Game Theory and Explanations for Armed Conflict
Published in One Hundred Years of Game Theory: A Nobel Symposium, 2026
Recommended citation: Game Theory and Explanations for Armed Conflict. In Mark Voorneveld, Jörgen Weibull, Tommy Andersson, Roger Myerson, Jean-François Laslier, Rida Laraki, and Yukio Koriyama, eds., [One Hundred Years of Game Theory: A Nobel Symposium](https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009686044), Cambridge University Press, 2026.
Worse than War: The Global Costs of Violence
Published in Princeton University Press, 2026
Recommended citation: [Worse than War: The Global Costs of Violence](https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691168890/worse-than-war). Co-authored with [Anke Hoeffler](https://www.humboldt-foundation.de/en/entdecken/newsroom/dossier-alexander-von-humboldt-professur/anke-hoeffler). Princeton University Press, 2026.
Review of Dan Reiter, Untied Hands: How States Avoid the Wrong War
Published in H-Diplo (forthcoming), 2026
Recommended citation: Review of Dan Reiter, Untied Hands: How States Avoid the Wrong War. Forthcoming, H-Diplo.
talks
Talk 1 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
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This is a description of your talk, which is a markdown file that can be all markdown-ified like any other post. Yay markdown!
Conference Proceeding talk 3 on Relevant Topic in Your Field
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This is a description of your conference proceedings talk, note the different field in type. You can put anything in this field.
teaching
Teaching experience 1
Undergraduate course, University 1, Department, 2014
This is a description of a teaching experience. You can use markdown like any other post.
Teaching experience 2
Workshop, University 1, Department, 2015
This is a description of a teaching experience. You can use markdown like any other post.
unpublished
Why are Things Messed Up? Political Economy Basics
Recommended citation: *Why are Things Messed Up? Political Economy Basics*
Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem
Published:
Recommended citation: Ethnic War as a Commitment Problem. Presented at the 1993 APSA Annual Meetings, New York.
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Bargaining over Objects that Influence Future Bargaining Power
Published:
Recommended citation: Bargaining over Objects that Influence Future Bargaining Power. Chicago Center on Democracy Working Paper, University of Chicago, 1995.
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The Offense-Defense Balance and War since 1648
Published:
Recommended citation: The Offense-Defense Balance and War since 1648. Presented at the Annual Meetings of International Studies Association, Chicago, February 21-25, 1995.
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A Cross-sectional Study of Large-Scale Ethnic Violence in the Post-War Period
Published:
Recommended citation: A Cross-sectional Study of Large-Scale Ethnic Violence in the Post-War Period (co-authored with David Laitin). Mimeo, September 1997.
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Chunky Shoes: A Model of Style Choice and Fashion Trends with Implications for Understanding “Image” Advertising
Published:
Recommended citation: Chunky Shoes: A Model of Style Choice and Fashion Trends with Implications for Understanding "Image" Advertising. Mimeo, June 1998.
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The Politicization of Cultural and Economic Differences: A Return to the Theory of Regional Autonomy Movements
Published:
Recommended citation: The Politicization of Cultural and Economic Differences: A Return to the Theory of Regional Autonomy Movements (co-authored with Pieter Van Houten). Presented at the 1998 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Sept. 2-5, Boston, MA.
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Why Ethnic Politics and “Pork” Tend to Go Together
Published:
Recommended citation: Why Ethnic Politics and "Pork" Tend to Go Together. Presented at an SSRC-MacArthur sponsored conference on "Ethnic Politics and Democratic Stability," University of Chicago, May 21-23, 1999.
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Weak States, Rough Terrain, and Large-scale Ethnic Violence
Published:
Recommended citation: Weak States, Rough Terrain, and Large-scale Ethnic Violence. Paper presented at the 1999 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA, September 1999.
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What is Identity (as We Now Use the Word)?
Published:
Recommended citation: What is Identity (as We Now Use the Word)? Mimeo, Stanford University, November 1999.
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Ordinary Language and External Validity: Specifying Concepts in the Study of Ethnicity
Published:
Recommended citation: Ordinary Language and External Validity: Specifying Concepts in the Study of Ethnicity (co-authored with David Laitin). Paper presented at the 2000 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., August 31-September 4.
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Catastrophic terrorism and civil liberties in the short and long run
Published:
Recommended citation: Catastrophic Terrorism and Civil Liberties in the Short and Long Run. Prepared for presentation at the symposium on Constitutions, Democracy, and the Rule of Law, Columbia University, October 2003.
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Civil War and Economic Growth
Published:
Recommended citation: Civil War and Economic Growth. Paper presented at the 2005 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, D.C., September 1-4, 2005.
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Fighting rather than Bargaining
Published:
Recommended citation: Fighting rather than Bargaining. Paper presented at the 2007 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, August 30-September 2, 2007.
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Civil War Termination
Published:
Recommended citation: Civil War Termination (co-authored with David Laitin). Paper presented at the 2007 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, August 30-September 2, 2007.
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An International Organization for Democracies? Accreditation versus a League
Published:
Recommended citation: An International Organization for Democracies? Accreditation versus a League. Stanford University, 2008.
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A Simple Political Economy of Relations between Democracies and Autocracies
Published:
Recommended citation: A Simple Political Economy of Relations between Democracies and Autocracies. Presented at the 2008 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Boston, August 27-31, 2008.
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Biological Institutions: The Political Science of Animal Cooperation
Published:
Recommended citation: Biological Institutions: The Political Science of Animal Cooperation (co-authored with Erol Akçay, Joan Roughgarden, John Ferejohn, Barry Weingast). Stanford University, 2010.
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Arming and Arms Races
Published:
Recommended citation: Arming and Arms Races. Presented at the 2010 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC, September 2-5, 2010.
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Does Contemporary Armed Conflict have “Deep Historical Roots”?
Published:
Recommended citation: Does Contemporary Armed Conflict have "Deep Historical Roots"? (co-authored with David Laitin). Paper prepared for the 2014 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association.
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Beyond Civil War: The Costs of Interpersonal Violence and the Next Round of MDGs
Published:
Recommended citation: Beyond Civil War: The Costs of Interpersonal Violence and the Next Round of MDGs (co-authored with Anke Hoeffler). Paper prepared for the Copenhagen Consensus, July 2014.
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Noisy Warning Systems and Nuclear War
Published:
Recommended citation: Noisy Warning Systems and Nuclear War. Revised and updated version of paper presented at the 2019 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, August 29-September 1.
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Relative Power and the Risk of Conflict
Recommended citation: Relative Power and the Risk of Conflict
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Civil War Violence and Refugee Outflows
Recommended citation: Civil War Violence and Refugee Outflows (co-authored with Andrew Shaver).
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International Alignments, the Arms Trade, and International Conflict
Published:
Recommended citation: International Alignments, the Arms Trade, and International Conflict (co-authored with Bertel T. Hansen). Paper prepared for the 2017 Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 31-September 3.
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A Theory of Elite-Initiated Democratization, Illustrated with the Case of Myanmar
Published:
Recommended citation: A Theory of Elite-Initiated Democratization, Illustrated with the Case of Myanmar (co-authored with Patrick Francois). Paper prepared for presentation at the 2018 Annual Meetings of the Western Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, March 28-31.
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Armed Conflict Bargaining
Published:
Recommended citation: Armed Conflict Bargaining (co-authored with Xin Jin). Fixes some mistakes and extends Fighting rather than Bargaining.
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