Publications
Book
Worse than War: The Global Costs of Violence. Co-authored with Anke Hoeffler. Princeton University Press, 2026.
Journal Articles
The Conventional Balance of Terror: America Needs a New Triad to Restore Its Eroding Deterrence (co-authored with Andrew S. Lim). Foreign Affairs 104, 3 (May/June 2025), 122-135.
Understanding Intimate Partner Violence (co-authored with Lisa Blaydes and Mae MacDonald). Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 28. Palo Alto, CA: Annual Reviews, 2025.
Climate as a Risk Factor for Armed Conflict (co-authored with principal authors Katharine J. Mach and Caroline M. Kraan, and 11 others). Nature 571 (11 July 2019), 193-197.
Cooperation, Conflict, and the Costs of Anarchy. International Organization 72, 3 (Summer 2018), 524-560.
Civil War and the Current International System. Daedalus 146 (Fall 2017), 18-32.
How Does Development Affect Collective Action Capacity? Results from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy Weinstein). American Political Science Review 109, 3 (August 2015), 450-469.
Socially Relevant Ethnic Groups, Ethnic Structure, and AMAR (co-authored with Jóhanna Birnir et al.). Journal of Peace Research 52, 1 (January 2015), 110-115.
Civil War Non-Onsets: The Case of Japan (co-authored with David Laitin). Journal of Civilization Studies 1, 1 (January 2014), 67-90.
Self-Enforcing Democracy. Quarterly Journal of Economics 126 (November 2011), 1661-1708.
Sons of the Soil, Migrants, and Civil War (co-authored with David Laitin). World Development 39, 2 (2011), 199-211.
Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein). American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 99, 2 (2009), 287-291.
Iraq’s Civil War. Foreign Affairs 86, 2 (March/April 2007), 2-16.
Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War Onset (co-authored with Kimuli Kasara and David Laitin). American Political Science Review 101, 1 (February 2007), 187-193.
Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War. Journal of Conflict Resolution 49, 4 (August 2005), 483-507.
Separatist Wars, Partition, and World Order. Security Studies 13, 4 (Summer 2004), 394-415.
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer Than Others?. Journal of Peace Research 41, 3 (May 2004), 275-302.
Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States (co-authored with David Laitin). International Security 28, 4 (Spring 2004), 5-43.
Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country. Journal of Economic Growth 8, 2 (June 2003), 195-222.
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War (co-authored with David Laitin). American Political Science Review 97, 1 (February 2003), 75-90.
Selection Effects and Deterrence. International Interactions 28, 1 (January-March 2002), 5-29.
Violence and the Social Construction of Ethnic Identity (co-authored with David Laitin). International Organization 54, 4 (Autumn 2000), 845-877.
Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation. International Organization 52, 2 (Spring 1998), 269-306.
Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, 1 (February 1997), 68-90.
Explaining Interethnic Cooperation (co-authored with David Laitin). American Political Science Review 90, 4 (December 1996), 715-735.
Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (Summer 1995), 379-414.
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes. American Political Science Review 88 (September 1994), 577-592.
Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model. Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (June 1994, Special Issue), 236-269.
Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics 43 (January 1991), 169-195.
International Financial Institutions and Economic Policy Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Modern African Studies 26 (March 1988), 113-137.
Papers in Edited Volumes
Game Theory and Explanations for Armed Conflict. In Mark Voorneveld, Jörgen Weibull, Tommy Andersson, Roger Myerson, Jean-François Laslier, Rida Laraki, and Yukio Koriyama, eds., One Hundred Years of Game Theory: A Nobel Symposium, Cambridge University Press, 2026.
Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma. In Richard H. Immerman, Stacie E. Goddard, and Diane N. Labrosse, eds., The Jervis Effect: The Scholarship and Legacy of Robert Jervis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2025.
One Does Not Simply Dismiss the Nuclear Revolution. In Jim Mitre, Michael C. Horowitz, Natalia Henry, Emma Borden, and Joel B. Predd, eds., The Artificial General Intelligence Race and International Security. RAND Report PE-A4155-1, 2025.
Strategic Dynamics of Social Mimicry. In Diego Gambetta, ed., Fight, Flight, Mimic. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024.
Why are Women More Effective at Fostering Public Goods Provision When They Work in Women’s Groups? (co-authored with Macartan Humphreys). In Siwan Anderson, Lori Beaman, and Jean-Philippe Platteau, eds., Towards Gender Equity in Development. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018.
State Fragility, Governance Indicators, and the Risk of Civil Conflict. In Claudia Sepúlveda, Ann Harrison, and Justin Yifu Lin, eds., Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World. Annual World Bank Conference on Economic Development, 2011. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 2013. Also published as “Fragilité des États, indicateurs de gouvernance et risque de guerre civile,” Revue d’économie du développement 4 (Décembre 2011), 153-186.
Governance and Civil War Onset. Prepared for the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report on “Conflict, Security, and Development.”
Evaluating Community-Driven Reconstruction: Lessons from post-conflict Liberia. Development Outreach 11, 2 (October 2009), 50-52.
The Rise of Emergency Relief Aid. In Michael Barnett and Thomas G. Weiss, eds., Humanitarianism in Question: Politics, Power, Ethics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2008.
International Institutions and Collective Authorization of the Use of Force. In Alan Alexandroff, ed., Can the World Be Governed? Possibilities for Effective Multilateralism. Waterloo, Ontario: Wilfrid Laurier University Press, 2008.
Integrating Quantitative and Qualitative Methods (co-authored with David D. Laitin). In Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008. Reprinted in Robert E. Goodin, ed., Oxford Handbook of Political Science. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009.
Economic Development, Insurgency, and Civil War. In Elhanan Helpman, ed., Institutions and Economic Performance. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008.
Reforming International Institutions to Promote International Peace and Security. In Peace and Security, Expert Paper Series #5 (Secretariat of the International Task Force on Global Public Goods, 2006).
Ethnic Mobilization and Ethnic Violence. In Barry R. Weingast and Donald Wittman, eds., Oxford Handbook of Political Economy. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006.
Rationalism and Constructivism in International Relations Theory (co-authored with Alex Wendt). In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations Theory. London: Sage Publications, 2002.
Electoral Accountability and the Control of Politicians: Selecting Good Types versus Sanctioning Poor Performance. In Bernard Manin, Adam Przeworski, and Susan Stokes, eds., Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999.
Deliberation as Discussion. In Jon Elster, ed., Deliberative Democracy. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Reprinted in Jostein Gripsrud, Hallvard Moe, Anders Molander, and Graham Murdock, eds., The Public Sphere. Sage Publications, 2010.
Commitment Problems and the Spread of Ethnic Conflict. In David Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds., The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict: Fear, Diffusion, and Escalation. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.
Counterfactuals and Causation in Social Science: Exploring an Analogy between Cellular Automata and Historical Processes. In Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds., Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.
Published Comments
Review of Dan Reiter, Untied Hands: How States Avoid the Wrong War. Forthcoming, H-Diplo.
Robert Jervis and Perspectives on the Security Dilemma. H-Diplo, February 4, 2022.
Review of Oriana Mastro, The Costs of Conversation: Obstacles to Peace Talks in Wartime, Roundtable 12-6 in H-Diplo, January 21, 2021.
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risk on the Korean Peninsula. In Lauren Ice, James Scouras, Kelly Rooker, Robert Leonhard, and David McGarvey, eds., Game Theory and Nuclear Stability in Northeast Asia. Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2019.
Taking the Gamble (reply to Alex Downes, “Regime Change Doesn’t Work”). Boston Review, September/October 2011.
Two States, Two Types, Two Actions: Comments on Charles Glaser’s Rational Theory of International Politics. Security Studies 20, 3 (August 2011), 431-440.
Comments on R. Harrison Wagner’s War and the State: The Theory of International Politics. International Theory 2, 2 (July 2010), 333-342.
Review Symposium on “State Failure and Challenges to Democratization in Africa,” comments on Robert Bates’ When Things Fell Apart: State Failure in Late-Century Africa. Perspectives on Politics 7, 2 (June 2009), 361-363.
Comments of the Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change. In Ernesto Zedillo, ed., Reforming the United Nations for Peace and Security: Proceedings of a Workshop to Analyze the Report of the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change. New Haven, CT: Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, 2005.
Two Questions about Ethnicity and Nationalism: Explaining Motivations versus Explaining Variation. A comment on Leonard Binder’s essay, in Edward Mansfield and Richard Sisson, eds., The Evolution of Political Knowledge: Democracy, Autonomy, and Conflict in Comparative and International Politics. Columbus, OH: Ohio State University Press, 2004.